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Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Welcome to the Depression

Items of Interest:

Paul Krugman / NY Times:
The Third Depression -- Recessions are common; depressions are rare. As far as I can tell, there were only two eras in economic history that were widely described as “depressions” at the time: the years of deflation and instability that followed the Panic of 1873 and the years of mass unemployment that followed the financial crisis of 1929-31.

Neither the Long Depression of the 19th century nor the Great Depression of the 20th was an era of nonstop decline — on the contrary, both included periods when the economy grew. But these episodes of improvement were never enough to undo the damage from the initial slump, and were followed by relapses.

We are now, I fear, in the early stages of a third depression. It will probably look more like the Long Depression than the much more severe Great Depression...

discussion:
IBD:
Krugman's Depression -- Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman says the U.S. is in the "early stages of a third Great Depression." If he's right, it's only because American policymakers have been following his advice...

Huffington Post:
Paul Krugman: Why We Could Be Entering 'A Third Depression' -- Krugman isn't alone in his fear that the world economy is becoming increasingly precarious. The Wall Street Journal noted that members of the Federal Reserve are in private planning for the possibility of a double-dip recession in America -- a concern shared by MarketWatch's in-house economist...

NewsBusters
Kudlow, Forbes Debunk Krugman's 'Third Depression' Call --It's hard to imagine an economist being provocative, but Paul Krugman, a Nobel Prize winner, has managed to do so.

In his June 28 New York Times op-ed, Krugman argued that since governments around the world aren't willing to double-down on Keynesian policies meant to stimulate the global economy, the United States and the rest of the world are facing a third depression...

Calculated Risk:
Krugman: "The Third Depression"

related:
Kevin Depew / Minyanville:
Five Things You Need to Know: The Modern Stealth Depression Revisited -- Welcome to the Depression. No, don't drop whatever it is you're doing. Don't get up. It's not going anywhere. It will wait. It's just going to sit over here in the corner and read a magazine while you do whatever it is you need to do.

A Depression doesn't run hot and fierce like some crazed meth burner. A Depression is methodical, purposeful, patient. It will build a shelter out of tree branches and newspaper, light a small, well-contained campfire and wait you out, brother. While you feed on the empty calories of denial and popcorn, it will quietly gather shards of broken dreams and fashion them into a terrible weapon of blunt force reality...

Mike Mish Shedlock / Minyanville:
In the Midst of a Depression, Consumer Confidence Plunges -- Depression is the price we pay for budgetary murder and, contrary to Krugman's belief, further budgetary murder can't possibly cure anything...
----
Wall Street Journal:
The Keynesian Dead End -- Today's G-20 meeting has been advertised as a showdown between the U.S. and Europe over more spending "stimulus," and so it is. But the larger story is the end of the neo-Keynesian economic moment, and perhaps the start of a healthier policy turn...
discussion:
Bruce McQuain / Questions and Observations: Is Keynesianism finally dead?
Vox Popoli: The Atlanta Journal/Constitution of Econ
Dave Schuler / The Glittering Eye: The Technocrats We Will Always Have With Us
TBlumer / BizzyBlog: WSJ: ‘The Keynesian Dead-End’
----
Zero Hedge:
No, This Is Not An Onion Headline: S&P Puts Moody's On Downgrade Review -- S&P has just announced it has put Moody's on creditwatch with negative implications, the reason: "We believe there may be added risk to U.S.-based credit rating agency Moody's business profile following recent U.S. legislation that may lower margins and increase litigation related costs for credit rating agencies"...
----
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard / Telegraph.co.uk:
Time to shut down the US Federal Reserve? -- As for the Fed, I venture to say that a common jury of 12 American men and women placed on the Federal Open Market Committee would have done a better job of setting monetary policy over the last 20 years than Doctors Bernanke and Greenspan...

zero hedge

Calculated Risk

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Paul Krugman - NY Times

The Big Picture - Barry Ritholtz

naked capitalism - Yves Smith

Pragmatic Capitalism

Washington's Blog

Safe Haven

Paper Economy

The Daily Reckoning - Australia

Financial Sector and Stocks Analysis from Seeking Alpha

Gold / Oil

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