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Thursday, July 2, 2009

Great Recession Roundup — July 2, 2009

Items of Interest:

New York Times:
U.S. Job Losses Rise in June as Unemployment Reaches 9.5%

Myglesias / Matthew Yglesias: Pace of Job Losses Once Again Accelerating
Dale Franks / QandO: Today's Employment Situation
Johanna Neuman / Top of the Ticket: Congress' globe-trotting trips: No recession here
Dakinikat / The Confluence: Next Strategy: Declare Victory, Go Home
Sara K. Smith / Wonkette: Unemployment Rate Still Thriving!
Conor Clarke / Atlantic Correspondents: Daily Chart: June Employment and Unemployment
AJStrata / The Strata-Sphere: Obamanomics Proving To Be An Abysmal Failure
Chris Good / The Atlantic Politics Channel: Unemployment: Still Rising, By .1 Percent
America's Effective Unemployment Rate is at 18.7% as of June 2009related:
Steve Clemons / The Washington Note:
America's Effective Unemployment Rate at 18.7%? -- Each month, I receive from Leo Hindery an update on "America's effective unemployment rate" which includes not only the official unemployment figures but other data points showing off-the-books unemployed or underemployed people...
Here is a June 2009 version of the summary that calculates the Effective Unemployment Rate, which is now 18.70%, and the Effective Number of Unemployed, which is now 30,172,000.

There are currently 14,729,000 officially unemployed workers, as just announced. However, this figure does not include the combined 15,443,000 workers either (1) in the "labor force reserve" because they have abandoned their job searches (i.e., 4,278,000) or (2) underemployed because they are "part-time of necessity" (i.e., 8,989,000) or "otherwise marginally attached" (i.e., 2,176,000).

The effective unemployment rate is therefore 18.70%, instead of the official 9.51%...

Phil Izzo / Real Time Economics: Economists React: Jobs the ‘Achilles’ Heel' of Recovery
Calculated Risk:
Naught for the Naughts? -- On the '00s (the "Naughts") ...

Employment Dec 1999: 130.53 million
Employment Jun 2009: 131.69 million

A gain of just 1.16 million. What are the odds that the economy loses another 1.16 million jobs over the next 6 months? Pretty high. That would mean no net jobs added to the economy for the naughts: Naught for the Naughts! ...
Geoff / Innocent Bystanders:
Oh Frabjous Day!! Unemployment Rate Increases by Only 0.1%!! — Finally. Finally the slowing of the unemployment rate increase has arrived. We've been waiting for months for unemployment to show signs of topping out, and it looks like it may be happening at last...
Spencer Morgan / Playboy.com:
Raging Bulls - Unemployed Finance Guys in Buenos Aires for Sex, Drugs and Their Own Souls -- Around October, when the economy went into free fall, a bunch of out-of-work finance guys in their 20s descended on Buenos Aires, where you can have the penthouse, the steak dinners and the bottle service at ridiculous nightclubs and still save money renting out your apartment in New York or London.

Lifestyle arbitrage, baby! The word got out, and the party built on itself, making the fantasy it offered all the more intoxicating: Come spend a month—or four—in Buenos Aires, where you really are a master of the universe, where nights are sleepless and potential business deals are all scams and the clubs teem with unemployed expat bankers looking for their identities in piles of cocaine and the bloodshot eyes of hookers and thieves...
NY Times:
Sharp Price Drops in Manhattan Apartments -- Manhattan apartment prices fell sharply during the second quarter of 2009, as the limited number of deals struck during the darkest months of the economic downturn began to close, according to a series of market reports released Wednesday.

The number of closings fell more than 50 percent, and prices in some categories were reported down as much as 25 percent, compared with the same quarter in 2008. Sale prices were also down from those reported in the first quarter of 2009.

One report, by Brown Harris Stevens and Halstead Property, put the average price of a Manhattan apartment in the second quarter at $1.26 million, a decline of 24 percent from the same period in 2008, and 16 percent below the previous quarter. It put the median sale price at $795,000, 19 percent below the figure in the first quarter of 2008...
Manhattan apartment prices fell sharply during the 2nd quarter of 2009related:
NY Post:
ROUGH SALE-ING IN CITY - MANHATTAN APTS. SWOON -- The free fall in Manhattan's residential real-estate market continued through the most recent three months, with average prices falling by nearly a quarter compared with the white-hot market of a year ago, new market reports show...

And the drop showed only minimal signs of slowing, with prices falling roughly 16 percent in this year's second quarter when compared to prices in the first three months of the year, the report found.

The only glimmer of hope in the latest market reports put out by some of the city's biggest real-estate firms was the increasing number of first-time buyers staking a claim to Manhattan property that would have been out of reach just a year ago...
Michael Scherer / Time:
What Happened to the Stimulus? -- Fueled by Coke Zero and a double-chocolate protein bar, Vice President Joe Biden is roiling, ranting, being his usual self. Five mayors and county executives listen in silence on the other end of a White House speakerphone as the Delaware ear bender tries to ride herd on the stampede for dollars known as the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, the $787 billion monster that is the largest domestic-spending effort in U.S. history. "My rear end is on the line just like yours," Biden barks, surrounded by a flock of aides in his West Wing office. "I'm the guy in charge of this deal. So if this doesn't work, it's me." ...
Walter Shapiro / Politics Daily: New Jobless Numbers: Another Bad Month, Another Challenge for Obama
Michael Scherer / Swampland: Fighting For The Stimulus Story
Chris Good / The Atlantic Politics Channel: No Swimming Pools Or Frisbee Golf
Domenico Montanaro / msnbc.com: OBAMA AGENDA: JOBS, RUSSIA, HEALTH
Tom Johnson / The World Newser: Obama Now Owns Bush's Broken Economy
Allahpundit / Hot Air:
New GOP ad: The stimulus isn't working — From Boehner's office, an odd, hokey first effort at pushing a meme that could deliver the House to the GOP if it's still true next November. There's too much in the way here to focus on the message — split-screen, soundtrack, cornpone narrator …
Victoria McGrane / The Politico: Where are the jobs? — The depressing job numbers released …
Donald Douglas / American Power: Obama's Stimulus Swindle

Calculated Risk

MishTalk - Mike Shedlock

Paul Krugman - NY Times

The Big Picture - Barry Ritholtz

naked capitalism - Yves Smith

Pragmatic Capitalism

Washington's Blog

Safe Haven

Paper Economy

The Daily Reckoning - Australia