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Monday, June 8, 2009

Great Recession Roundup — June 8, 2009

Items of Interest:

Op-Ed / NY Times:
The Economy Is Still at the Brink -- Whether at a fund-raising dinner for wealthy supporters in Beverly Hills, or at an Air Force base in Nevada, or at Charlie Rose’s table in New York City, President Obama is conducting an all-out campaign to try to make us feel a whole lot better about the economy as quickly as possible. “It’s safe to say we have stepped back from the brink, that there is some calm that didn’t exist before,” he told donors at the Beverly Hilton Hotel late last month...

Cafe Hayek / Economics Roundtable : Half empty
Matthew Wurtzel / Dealscape : Lewis and Cohan call for the revolution

Will It Be Another Jobless Recovery? - Sudeep Reddy, Real Time Economics
Doesn't Look Like a Robust Recovery - James Hamilton, Econbrowser
Courtney Schlisserman / Bloomberg:
Nobel Winner Krugman Sees U.S. Recession Ending Soon — The U.S. economy probably will emerge from the recession by September, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said. — “I would not be surprised if the official end of the U.S. recession ends up being, in retrospect …
Tom Watson / My Dirty Life & Times: Green Shoots and Ski Slopes
Tim Catts / DailyFinance: Paul Krugman sees the recession ending this summer

Bill Fleckenstein, MSN Money:
Blame Reagan For Our Financial Mess? -- First of all, let me say that I almost never read Paul Krugman's New York Times column, as I noticed several years ago that he has an uncanny ability to understand a problem but totally misdiagnose the cause...
Calculated Risk:
Fed: Big Bank Capital Plans are Sufficient -- The 10 banking organizations required by the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program to bolster their capital buffers have all submitted capital plans that, if implemented, would provide sufficient capital to meet the required buffer under the assessment's more-adverse scenario. As supervisors, we will be working with the ..
Satyajit Das / Minyanville:
The End of Ponzi Prosperity -- P.J. O’Rourke, writing in Eat The Rich (1998), observed that: "Economics is an entire scientific discipline of not knowing what you’re talking about." In reality, growth was founded on a series of elegant Ponzi schemes.

Consumption, rather than investment, drove growth, particularly in the developed world. Debt-fueled consumption became the norm. In the new economy, there were three kinds of people -- the haves, the have-nots, and the have-not-paid-for-what-they-haves...
Lyle Denniston / SCOTUSblog:
U.S. says TARP issue out of Court's reach — The Obama Administration argued Monday that no court, including the Supreme Court, has the authority to hear a challenge by Indiana benefit plans to the role the U.S. Treasury played in the Chrysler rescue, including the use of “bailout” (TARP) funds.
Tony Mauro / The BLT: Justice Ginsburg Stays Chrysler Sale — For Now
Lyle Denniston / SCOTUSblog:
Ginsburg temporarily blocks Chrysler deal — Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg put a temporary hold Monday on the deal to sell Chrysler to save it from collapse. Her order, however, simply gives her or the full Court more time to ponder whether to postpone the sale further, or allow it to go forward...
New York Times:
U.S. to Propose Wider Oversight of Compensation -- The Obama administration plans to require banks and corporations that have received two rounds of federal bailouts to submit any major executive pay changes for approval by a new federal official who will monitor compensation, according to two government officials. . .
Henry Blodget / The Huffington Post: Wall Street Pay Caps Are A Terrible Idea
Why Home Prices May Keep FallingNY Times:
Robert Shiller: Why Home Prices May Keep Falling -- HOME prices in the United States have been falling for nearly three years, and the decline may well continue for some time.

Even the federal government has projected price decreases through 2010. As a baseline, the stress tests recently performed on big banks included a total fall in housing prices of 41 percent from 2006 through 2010. Their “more adverse” forecast projected a drop of 48 percent — suggesting that important housing ratios, like price to rent, and price to construction cost — would fall to their lowest levels in 20 years...
Alan Abelson / Barron's: There's No Bottom in Housing Yet in Sight
Bloomberg: Bernanke Conundrum Threatens Housing on Mortgage Rate
David Bogoslaw / BusinessWeek: A Housing Recovery: Not So Fast
Joel Sappell / Los Angeles Times: Silver Lining In the Real Estate Storm
N.J. retail vacancies soar due to slumping economy -- There used to be an Office Depot here. An Office Max, too.

A GAP, a supermarket and a bakery were all open at this gray shopping plaza on Route 18 in East Brunswick, just east of the Turnpike.

Now, outlines of corporate logos bleached into facades and operating hours stuck on
sliding glass doors are the only reminders that customers once cared when the businesses opened and closed.

"This is the deadest plaza in East Brunswick," said Frank Bruzzese, who runs Mario's Brick Oven Pizza here. "I call it no man's land." ....

Vacant Route 18 shopping center in East Brunswick, NJ----
AP / NJ.com:
Frugal moms' online chats gaining an audience -- Moms have always had marketplace muscle, but a new frugality driven by rising joblessness, housing woes and other economic problems has them exercising it like never before with the help of the internet.

In this recession, their talk online encompasses everything from complaints to advice on coupon clipping, low-budget meals and family finance. But it's not just fellow moms who are following every post: Retailers and consumer product makers are listening, too -- and responding.

"We see (moms who blog) as a vital force for our brand strategy," said Gap spokeswoman Louise Callagy ...
Shelly Banjo / Wall St. Journal:
The Best Online Tools for Personal Finance
E. Christian & G. Robbins, IBD:
Obama's Plan For a Debt-Ridden Future -- President Obama has officially begun the era of bigger big government by proposing to go on a multitrillion dollar borrowing spree that risks doing to the "full faith and credit of the United States" what excessive borrowing during the housing bubble did to private credit.

Under his budget plan for America's future, spending will average 23.7% of GDP for at least a decade (a whopping 20% higher than in 2000-08)...
Barry Ritholtz / The Big Picture:
CJR on CNBC, WSJ & Business Press -- This month’s Columbia Journalism Review (CJR) focuses on the role of the media in the credit crisis stock market and economic collapse...

Columbia Journalism Review (CJR):
Power Problem: The business press did everything but take on the institutions that brought down the financial system...

Waiting for CNBC: A tragicomedy in one long act...

Identity Crisis: The Wall Street Journal steers away from what made it great...
Barry Ritholtz / The Big Picture: How to Fix Financial Television

Calculated Risk

MishTalk - Mike Shedlock

Paul Krugman - NY Times

The Big Picture - Barry Ritholtz

naked capitalism - Yves Smith

Pragmatic Capitalism

Washington's Blog

Safe Haven

Paper Economy

The Daily Reckoning - Australia