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Monday, April 14, 2008

Housing/Subprime Roundup — April 14, 2008

Items of Interest:

John P. Hussman, Ph.D. / Hussman Funds:
Which "Inning" of the Mortgage Crisis Are We In? -- Clearly, as we enter April 2008, we appear to be quite early in the mortgage crisis, with only about a quarter of the cumulative resets having occurred. That places us near the start of the third inning, where we can expect each of the nine innings� to be about three months in duration. Unfortunately, the next three innings (quarters) are when the heavy hitters on the opposing team will come up to the plate, as the cumulative amount of resets will surge. With that surge, loan losses and foreclosures will also predictably spike higher...

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Barry Ritholtz / The Big Picture:
Volcker: Bernanke a One Termer -- Over the prior weekend of April 6, former Fed Chair Paul Volcker was present at a small gathering. Several luminaries from the worlds of finance, economics and trading were in also attendance.

The conversation turned to the present Federal Reserve. The blunt, straight talking Volcker stated that Ben Bernanke is not likely to serve more than one term as FOMC chief. Quote: "He's a one-termer." ...

Must See TV: Volcker's Speech on Financial Crises -- Paul Volcker on the credit crisis, Geenspan, Bernanke, etc. ...
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Herald Tribune [Florida]:
Lenders promise that walking away from house will hurt -- The country's two largest sources of mortgage money have a blunt warning for anyone thinking about joining the growing "walkaway" trend, where homeowners stop making payments and months later send the house keys back to their lender: You will feel the pain ...
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Reggie Middleton / Seeing Alpha:
Talk of a Real Estate Bottom Already Is a Waste of Breath -- If I hear another pundit (ex. Ara Hovnanian) query or comment on reaching a "bottom" in the real estate market anytime soon, I am going to scream. In the conversation I was having with my father, I explained the current housing like a ball that we usually play with at ground level. Ground level is the equilibrium point. Now, I said, imagine throwing that ball 50 feet into the sky, then expecting it to suddenly stop in mid-air or 5 feet down in its descent back to the ground - ex. finding the "bottom" that the CNBC crew are in search of and expecting to come sometime next year. Physically, and realistically, this expected stop (or bottom) for the ball just ain't gonna happen. The same can be said for real estate values. When things pop that far outside of historical mean, expect a reversal...
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Calculated Risk

MishTalk - Mike Shedlock

Paul Krugman - NY Times

The Big Picture - Barry Ritholtz

naked capitalism - Yves Smith

Pragmatic Capitalism

Washington's Blog

Safe Haven

Paper Economy

The Daily Reckoning - Australia